GNGTS 2013 - Atti del 32° Convegno Nazionale

Poisson to the renewal models, respectively. For faults 15, 18 and 21 seismic hazard increases up to 50% when the renewal models are chosen for the hazard calculation. Between models BPT and BPT+∆CFF, the effectiveness of the model chosen is lower at the PGA estimation; the increase is up to 20% and the decrease is up to 30%. The areas affected by the model chosen are much smaller but approximately at the same geographic points except for the North Saros Fault (7). At Southern North Anatolian Fault Strands; Pazarkoy (24), Can (25) and Ezine (26) of and the North Saros (7) fault we observed 5% and 10% of increase in the seismic hazard due to the positive fault interaction, respectively. Tab. 1 – Marmara Fault segmentations and the calculated probabilities of occurrence together with the elapsed time ratio on the fault (lapsed-time / recurrence time), for a 50-year period of time (2013–2063) according to the Poisson, BPT and BPT with a stress interaction models for each fault segment of the Marmara region. The probability values related to 50 th percentile are shown in the table. # Fault name M w Elapsed Time Elapsed Time Ratio Poisson 50 year prob. 50 th percent. BPT 50 year prob. 50 th percent. BPT+ΔCFF 50 year prob. 50 th percent. 1 Izmit 7,4±0,2 14 0.12 3.61E-01 5.40E-03 5.79E-03 2 Cinarcik 7,0±0,2 119 0.88 3.29E-01 5.50E-01 5.55E-01 3 S. Cinarcik 6,8±0,2 259 1.04 1.95E-01 3.59E-01 3.45E-01 4 C. Marmara 7,2±0,2 247 1.27 2.23E-01 4.18E-01 4.19E-01 5 W.Mar. 7,2±0,3 457 2.92 2.82E-01 5.32E-01 5.33E-01 6 Ganos 7,4±0,2 101 0.47 2.16E-01 2.66E-01 2.67E-01 7 N. Saros 7,1±0,2 120 0.49 1.88E-01 2.26E-01 1.65E-01 8 S. Saros 7,1±0,2 154 0.62 1.83E-01 2.64E-01 2.79E-01 9 Mudurnu 7,2±0,2 46 0.23 2.32E-01 1.21E-02 1.17E-03 10 Abant 7,2±0,2 56 0.22 1.85E-01 2.13E-03 3.88E-03 11 Duzce 7,1±0,2 14 0.09 2.78E-01 4.11E-02 4.11E-02 12 Gerede 7,5±0,2 69 0.42 2.53E-01 2.61E-01 2.53E-01 13 Geyve 7,0±0,3 717 2.45 1.59E-01 3.32E-01 3.08E-01 14 Iznik 7,4±0,3 1892 1.47 3.78E-02 8.01E-02 7.60E-02 15 Yenisehir 6,8±0,3 948 2.11 1.05E-01 2.19E-01 2.12E-01 16 Gemlik 6,8±0,2 158 0.40 1.53E-01 1.88E-01 1.50E-01 17 Bursa 6,8±0,2 163 0.91 2.51E-01 4.32E-01 4.33E-01 18 S. Marmara 7,1±0,3 457 0.87 1.15E-01 2.19E-01 2.09E-01 19 Kemalpasa 7,4±0,2 158 0.14 2.09E-02 4.72E-10 1.06E-09 20 Manyas 6,9±0,2 49 0.32 3.44E-01 4.04E-01 3.99E-01 21 Bandirma 7,0±0,3 1890 3.24 1.02E-01 2.12E-01 2.12E-01 22 Gonen 7,1±0,2 60 0.12 9.83E-02 9.46E-04 6.25E-04 23 Biga 7,0±0,2 44 0.10 1.21E-01 1.16E-03 1.24E-03 24 Pazarkoy 6,8±0,2 69 0.21 1.77E-01 7.76E-02 6.20E-02 25 Can 7,0±0,2 276 0.61 1.12E-01 1.65E-01 1.32E-01 26 Ezine 7,0±0,2 187 0.29 7.93E-02 2.89E-02 2.80E-02 Acknowledgements. This work has been partially supported by the MARSite (Marmara Supersite) “New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite”, European Integrated Project, THEME-ENV.2012.6.4-2 (Long-term monitoring experiment in geologically active regions of Europe prone to natural hazards: the Supersite concept), Grant Agreement No: 308417. 8 GNGTS 2013 S essione 2.1