GNGTS 2013 - Atti del 32° Convegno Nazionale

di soddisfacimento delle esigenze di riparazione e ricostruzione , così come auspicabile e desumibile anche dal testo del recente tentativo legislativo di introdurre la polizza contro le calamità (D.L. n. 59/2012). Bibliografia Ania-Guy Carpenter-Consap (2011). Danni da eventi sismici e alluvionali al patrimonio abitativo italiano: studio quantitativo e possibili schemi assicurativi . http://www.ania.it/ export/sites/default/it/pubblicazioni/monografie-ed- interventi/Danni-da-eventi-sismici-e-alluvionali.pdf (ultimo accesso, 10 Febbraio 2013). Maccaferri S., Cariboni F., Campolongo F. (2012). Natural Catastrophes: risk relevance and Insurance Coverage in the EU . Technical Report. http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/insurance/docs/naturalcatastrophes/jrc_report_on_nat_ cat_en.pdf (ultimo accesso, 25 Febbraio 2013). Morphostructural zonation and pattern recognition of earthquake prone areas in the po plain A. Gorshkov 1,2 , A. Peresan 1,3 , A. Soloviev 2,3 , G.F. Panza 1,3,4 1 The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, SAND Group, Trieste, Italy 2 IEPT, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation 3 Department of Mathematics and Geosciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy 4 Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing Introduction. A systematic and quantitative assessment, capable of providing first-order consistent information about the sites where large earthquakes may occur, is highly important for knowledgeable seismic hazard evaluation. The methodology for the recognition of areas prone to large earthquakes (Gelfand et al. , 1972) is based on the morphostructural zoning method, MZ, which employs topographic data for the mapping earthquake-controlling structures (i.e. the nodes formed around lineaments intersections) and does not rely on the knowledge about past seismicity. The nodes are assumed to be characterized by a uniform set of topographic, geologic, and geophysical parameters; on the basis of such parameters the pattern recognition algorithm defines a classification rule to discriminate seismogenic and non-seismogenic nodes. This methodology has been successfully applied since the early 1970s in a number of regions worldwide, including California, where it permitted the identification of areas that have been subsequently struck by strong events and that previously were not considered seismogenic (Keilis-Borok and Soloviev, 2003 and references therein). So far 79 out of 91 target earthquakes (i.e. 87%) occurred within the nodes predicted in previously published maps. Thus, the recognition results highlight the crucial role of topographic parameters in the identification of nodes prone to large earthquakes. The recognition of earthquake prone areas was already carried out for the Italian mountain ranges, namely in the Alps (Gorshkov et al. , 2004), peninsular Italy and Sicily (Gorshkov et al. , 2002). In this study, the analysis is extended to the flat areas in the Po Plain, to allow for the systematic identification of the nodes prone to earthquakes with magnitude M≥5.0. Morphostructural zoning of the Po plain (Northern Italy). TheMorphostructural Zoning (MZ) method has been applied to Po plain, with the aim to identify the earthquake-prone areas in the region using the pattern recognition approach. The mountain systems surrounding the Po plain, namely the Alps – Dinarides system and the Apennines, were previously studied with MZ for identification of seismogenic nodes (Gorshkov et al. , 2002, 2004). From a methodological point of view, according to the MZ (Alekseevskaya et al. , 1979; Gorshkov et al. , 2003) the study region is divided into a system of hierarchically ordered areas, characterized by homogeneous present-day topography and tectonic structure. MZ distinguishes (1) blocks (areas) of different rank; (2) their boundary zones, morphostructural lineaments; and (3) sites where lineaments intersect, the nodes. A morphostructural lineament is viewed as a boundary zone between territorial units delineated by MZ. The rank of the lineament depends on the rank of the area limited by the lineament. With respect to the regional 87 GNGTS 2013 S essione 2.1