GNGTS 2013 - Atti del 32° Convegno Nazionale

Panza, G.F., Peresan A., Zuccolo E.; 2010: Climatic modulation of seismicity in the Alpine-Himalayan mountain range. Terra Nova, 23(1) , 19-25, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3121.2010.00976.x Panza G.F., Peresan A., Magrin A., Vaccari F., Sabadini R., Crippa B., Marotta A.M., Splendore R., Barzaghi R., Borghi A., Cannizzaro L., Amodio A., Zoffoli S.; 2011 : The SISMA prototype system: integrating Geophysical Modeling and Earth Observation for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment . Natural Hazards. DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9981-7. Panza G.F., La Mura C., Peresan A., Romanelli F., Vaccari F.: 2012: Seismic Hazard Scenarios as Preventive Tools for a Disaster Resilient Society, Advances in Geophysics, DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-380938-4.00003-3 Peresan, A. and Panza, G.F.; 2002: UCI2001: The Updated Catalog of Italy . The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics. ICTP, Miramare, Trieste. Italy. Internal report IC/IR/2002/3. Peresan A., Zuccolo E., Vaccari F., Gorshkov A., Panza G.F.; 2011: Neo-deterministic seismic hazard and pattern recognition techniques: time dependent scenarios for North-Eastern Italy . Pure and Applied Geophysics, 168 (3-4) , 583-607. DOI 10.1007/s00024-010-0166-1 Rovida, R. Camassi, P. Gasperini and M. Stucchi (eds.),; 2011: CPTI11, the 2011 version of the Parametric Catalogue of Italian Earthquakes. Milano, Bologna, http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI. DOI: 10.6092 /INGV.IT- CPTI11 Toscani G., Burrato P., Di Bucci D., Seno S., Valensise G.; 2009: Plio-Quaternary tectonic evolution of the Northern Apennines thrust fronts (Bologna-Ferrara section, Italy): seismotectonic implications. Boll.Soc.Geol.It., 128(2) ., 605-613, 5 figs. (DOI: 10.3301/IJG.2009.128.2.605) Vorobieva, I., Panza G.F.; 1993: Prediction of the occurrence of related strong earthquakes in Italy. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 141(1), 25-41. Wells D.L., and Coppersmith K.J.; 1994: New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, and surface displacement . Bull. Seism. Soc. Am . , 84 , 974-1002. Zuccolo, E., Vaccari F., Peresan A. and Panza G.F.; 2011: Neo-deterministic (NDSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) assessments: A comparison over the Italian territory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 168 , 69–83, doi:10.1007/s00024- 010-0151-8 Where the next major earthquake in the Italian peninsula? E. Mantovani 1 , M. Viti 1 , N. Cenni 2 , D. Babbucci 1 , C. Tamburelli 1 , A. Vannucchi 1 1 Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Università di Siena, Italy 2 Dipartimento di Scienze Biologiche, Geologiche e Ambientali, Università di Bologna, Italy Introduction. It is known that deformation of the upper brittle crust mostly develops through the seismic and post seismic slips that occur at main fault systems (e.g., Maggi et al. , 2000; Jackson, 2002). Thus, one may expect that the activation of a major decoupling fault involved in a given tectonic mechanism (for instance the displacement of a plate or an orogenic wedge) is influenced by the previous seismicity pattern in the other decoupling zones. The way by which seismic sources interact is mainly controlled by post-seismic relaxation, i.e. the perturbation of the strain and stress fields that is triggered by each strong earthquake and that gradually propagates through the surrounding regions (e.g., Pollitz et al. , 1998; 2006; Freed et al. , 2007; Ergintav et al. , 2009). The above concepts may be the basis of a deterministic way to recognize the future paths of strong earthquakes (M≥5.5) in a zone where the main features of tectonic context and the past seismic history are well defined. In this note, we describe the results that can be achieved by applying this kind of approach to the Central Mediterranean region, starting from the accurate reconstruction of the ongoing tectonic context (Fig. 1) and the information so far achieved about the effects of post seismic relaxation in the study area. (e.g., Mantovani et al. , 2009, 2010, 2012a,b, 2013a,b; Viti et al. , 2003, 2011, 2012, 2013). At first, we discuss on how the tectonic evolution of the structural system involved may develop in the short term, mainly through co-seismic and post-seismic displacements at main decoupling fault systems, and how this context may influence the space-time distribution of major seismicity. Particular attention is devoted to recognizing the periAdriatic seismic zones whose activation may have significant effects (possibly systematic) on the seismicity in other zones, by the analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of major earthquakes since 1400 A.D. in the framework of the known tectonic setting. 94 GNGTS 2013 S essione 2.1