GNGTS 2013 - Atti del 32° Convegno Nazionale

Finally, we discuss on how the information so acquired can tentatively be used to recognize which Italian seismic zones will most probably be hit by the next strong shock (Mantovani et al. , 2013b). Adria kinematics and space-time distribution of major periAdriatic earthquakes. It is recognized that plate motions and related tectonic processes are not continuous over time, but rather develop by successive accelerations, mainly during co-seismic and post-seismic phases (e.g., Anderson, 1975). So, to find possible explanations for the spatio-temporal distribution of major earthquakes in the study area it is opportune to try a reconstruction of the short-term kinematics and to gain insights into how the above pattern may influence seismic activity. In particular, we aim at checking the hypothesis that each strong decoupling earthquake at one periAdriatic zone increases the probability of seismic activation at the other boundary zones. This view implies that each forward step of Adria towards Europe requires seismic activation of the decoupling zones that surround that plate. The seismic activation of the eastern Adria collisional border, running from the Cephalonia to the North Albania fault systems (Fig. 1), accommodates the underthrusting of the Adriatic lithosphere beneath the Hellenides. Then, to fully develop its migration towards Europe, Adria must also decouple from the southern Dinarides (by activating underthrusting faults), from Fig. 1 – Proposed plate/microplate configuration and kinematic pattern in the Central Mediterranean and Aegean- Western Anatolian region. White arrows indicate velocity vectors with respect to Eurasia. Africa moves around the Euler pole: lat: 36.2 °N, long: 18.0 °W and angular velocity 0.10 °/Myr (Mantovani et al. , 2007). The Adria- Eurasia Euler pole (33.7°N, 16.7°W, 0.10°/My) is close to the Africa-Eurasia pole. The velocity pattern in the Aegean-Anatolian region is compatible with the distribution of the observed Quaternary deformation. Thick red lines delimitate for reference the inner part of the Alpine metamorphic belt. 1,2,3=Compressional, extensional and transcurrent features. The pink area shows the outer sector of the Apennine belt carried by the Adriatic plate. Al=Albanides, CA=Calabria, Ce=Cefalonia fault/escarpment, CP=Corinth-Patras trough, Ep=Epirus, ESA=Eastern Southern Alps, HA=Hyblean-Adventure block, NA=North Aegean, Pd=Padanian protuberance of the Adriatic domain, Pe=Peloponnesus. 95 GNGTS 2013 S essione 2.1