GNGTS 2014 - Atti del 33° Convegno Nazionale

At present, several attempts at predicting earthquakes in Italy are carried out by probabilistic procedures (e.g., Marzocchi et al. , 2010), in spite of the fact that such kind of approach is mostly based on assumptions not compatible with the nature of earthquakes and on the very optimistic hope that the seismicity data set now available (only related to few centuries) is representative of the future patterns. This uncomfortable choice is mainly due to the fact that the adoption of deterministic approaches, much more compatible with the phenomenon under study, is not actually considered as feasible for the lack of reliable information on the ongoing tectonic context. The above arguments would suggest the opportunity that the Earth Science community devote a much greater attention to the identification of a largely accepted geodynamic model for the central Mediterranean area. In particular, as argued in this note, it would be necessary a much more rigorous check of the compatibility between the implications of the proposed geodynamic interpretations and the very large set of observed features (e.g., Mantovani et al. , 2009, 2014; Viti et al. , 2011). References Argnani A., Barbacini G., Bernini M., Camurri F., Ghielmi M., Papani G., Rizzini F., Rogledi S., Torelli L.; 2003: Gravity tectonics driven by Quaternary uplift in the Northern Apennines: insights from the La Spezia-Reggio Emilia geo-transect. Quaternary International, 101-102 , 13-26. Bartolini C.; 2003: When did the Northern Apennine become a mountain chain ? Quaternary International, 101-102 , 75-80. Boccaletti, M., Corti, G., Martelli, L.; 2010: Recent and active tectonics of the external zone of the Northern Apennines (Italy) . Int. J. Earth Sci. (Geologische Rundschau), doi: 10.1007/s00531-010-0545-y. Buiter S.J.H., Govers R., Wortel M.J.R.; 2001: A modelling study of vertical surface displacements at convergent plate margins . Geophys. J. Int., 147 , 415-427. Catalano S., Monaco C., Tortorici L.; 2004: Neogene-Quaternary tectonic evolution of the southern Apennines . Tectonics, 23 , TC2003. Cello G., Mazzoli S., 1999. Apennine tectonics in southern Italy: a review . J. Geodynamics, 27 , 191-211. Finetti I.R. (Ed); 2005a: Deep Seismic Exploration of the Central Mediterranean and Italy, CROP PROJECT . Elsevier, pp. 1-794. Finetti I.R.; 2005b: The Calabrian Arc and subducting Ionian slab from new CROP seismic data . In: Finetti I.R. (Ed.), Deep Seismic Exploration of the Central Mediterranean and Italy, CROP PROJECT. Elsevier, Chapter 17, 393-412. Finetti I.R.; 2005c: Geodynamic evolution of the Mediterranean Region from the Permo-Triassic Ionian opening to the present, constrained by new lithospheric CROP seismic data . In: Finetti I.R. (Ed.), Deep Seismic Exploration of the Central Mediterranean and Italy, CROP PROJECT. Elsevier, Chapter 34, 767-776. Finetti I.R.; Del Ben A., 1986: Geophysical study of the Tyrrhenian opening . Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl., 110, 75-156. Finetti I.R., Del Ben A.; 2005a: Ionian Tethys lithosphere roll-back sinking and back-arc Tyrrhenian opening from new CROP seismic data . In: Finetti I.R. (Ed.), Deep Seismic Exploration of the Central Mediterranean and Italy, CROP PROJECT. Elsevier, Chapter 21, 483-504. Finetti I.R.; Del BenA.; 2005b: Crustal tectono-stratigraphic setting of the Pelagian foreland from new CROP seismic data . In: Finetti I.R. (Ed.), Deep Seismic Exploration of the Central Mediterranean and Italy, CROP PROJECT. Elsevier, Chapter 26, 581-595. Finetti I.R., Lentini F., Carbone S., Del Ben A., Di Stefano A., Guarnieri P., Pipan M., Prizzon A.; 2005: Crustal tectono-stratigraphy and geodynamics of the Southern Apennines from CROP and other integrated geophysical- geological data. In: Finetti I.R. (Ed.), Deep Seismic Exploration of the Central Mediterranean and Italy, CROP PROJECT. Elsevier, Chapter 12, 225-262. Galadini F.; 1999: Pleistocene change in the central Apennine fault kinematics, a key to decipher active tectonics in central Italy . ���������� Tectonics, 18 , 877-894. Guarnieri P., Carbone S.; 2003: Assetto geologico e lineamenti morfostrutturali dei bacini plio-quaternari del Tirreno meridionale . ����� ���� ����� ���� Boll. Soc. Geol. It., 12 2, 377-386. Hampel A., Pfiffner A.; 2006: Relative importance of trenchward upper plate motion and friction along the plate interface for the topographic evolution of subduction-related mountain belt s. In: Buiter S. J. H. and Schreurs G. (eds), Analogue and Numerical Modelling of Crustal-Scale Processes. Geol. Soc.London, Spec. Publ., 253 , 105-115. Hassani R., Jongmans D., Chery J.; 1997: Study of plate deformation and stress in subduction processes using two- dimensional numerical models . J. Geophys. Res., 102 , 17951-17965. GNGTS 2014 S essione 1.2 155