GNGTS 2014 - Atti del 33° Convegno Nazionale

GNGTS 2014 S essione 2.1 65 NEW METHODOLOGY FOR LOSS SIMULATION SCENARIOS VALIDATED WITH RECENT ITALIAN EARTHQUAKES F. Sabetta, R. Ferlito, T. Lo Presti, M.G. Martini, M. Picone Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Roma, Italy In the first 1-2 hours after the notification of the magnitude and coordinates of an earthquake, is particularly useful to have a tool that allows to evaluate a first estimate of the expected losses, in order to plan a tight schedule of the actions to be taken for the emergency management. In this paper the last development of a loss simulation tool, based on a Geographical Information System (GIS) and developed by the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC), is �������� analysed evaluating its performance in matching the damage data of recent Italian earthquakes. At the DPC has been in use for more than 10 years the application SIGE (Sistema Informativo per la Gestione dell’Emergenza) that allows you to calculate the losses in terms of the expected number of collapsed, unusable and damaged houses, as well as victims, injured and homeless (Lucantoni et al. 2001). This tool also provides a comprehensive picture of the affected area in terms of seismicity, monitoring networks, schools, hospitals, roads and railways, dams, industries at risk, etc. SIGE is based on an empirical approach using a conversion magnitude- macroseismic intensity, an intensity attenuation relationship, and Damage Probability Matrices (DPM - Di Pasquale et al. 2000) providing, on the basis of data collected during post-earthquake damage surveys, the probability of a given damage level as a function of intensity and building typological class. It has to be remarked that, considering the lack of reliable geological and geotechnical data at the national scale, SIGE doesn’t take into account the local site effects. The former version of SIGE has been updated in order to improve the losses forecast particularly for small to medium sized earthquakes. This has been achieved through a careful analysis of the damage surveys performed after some recent Italian earthquakes (Tab. 1) and the following calibration of the scenario results. The data reported in Tab. 1 have been obtained as follows: Ml is the value provided by the INGV message on which the SIGE has been launched; Mw is calculated from Ml on the basis of the relationship provided by ��������� Gasperini et al. (2013) except for the L’Aquila earthquake; epicentral intensity Io is estimated fromaMw-Io relationship [catalogue CPT11: Rovida et al. (������ ������ ��� ��� ���� ������ ���������� ����� �� ��� 2011)] except for the 2012 Emilia earthquake where Io has been reduced on the basis of the macroseismic observations; depth is taken from INGV-ISIDE (http://iside.rm.ingv.it/ ); fatalities and homeless are taken from several sources available in the WEB (e.g Italian regions and DPC) and considering the resident people (ISTAT 2001 census) in the unusable buildings (habitability states B, C, E) reported in the AeDES forms (Baggio et al. , 2009) used in Italy for damage and safety assessment of buildings. Tab. 1 - Italian earthquakes considered for the calibration of the loss scenario. Earthquake Date Ml Mw Io MCS Depth (km) Fatalities Homeless Narni 16/12/2000 4.1 4.2 4.8 8 0 0 Cerreto 11/03/2000 4.1 4.2 4.8 5 0 120 Arezzo 26/11/2001 4.4 4.5 5.5 5 0 50 Salò 24/11/2004 4.8 5.0 6.4 5 5 974 Pollino 26/10/2012 5.0 5.2 6.9 6 0 150 Lunigiana 21/06/2013 5.2 5.4 7.3 5 21 638 Lagonegro 09/09/1998 5.5 5.7 8.0 7 11 651 Molise 31/10/2002 5.4 5.6 7.8 10 130 3000 Palermo 06/09/2002 5.6 5.8 8.2 5 0 209 Emilia 20/05/2012 5.9 6.1 7.5 6 57 42000 L’Aquila 06/04/2009 5.8 6.3 9.3 9 1908 67459