GNGTS 2014 - Atti del 33° Convegno Nazionale

92 GNGTS 2014 S essione 2.1 Singer, S., The Nature of Ball Lightning. Plenum Press, New York, 1978. Takahashi, T., Electric charge of small particles (1–40μ), J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 921–930, 1972. Tennakone, K., Ball lightning elusive behavior depending on proton conductivity, Curr. Sci., 90, 1247-1250, 2006. Tennakone, K., Stable spherically symmetric static charge separated configurations in the atmosphere: Implications on ball lightning and earthquake lights, Journal of Electrostatics, 69, 638-640, 2011. Wernicke, B., Low-angle normal faults and seismicity: A review. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 20, 159–20, 1995. Applying Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) to medium-short temporal scale monitoring of seismic hazard in Italy: preliminary results achieved in the framework of the INGV-DPC-S3 Projects V. Tramutoli 1,2,3 , R. Corrado 2 , I.Coviello 1 , C. Filizzola 2 , N. Genzano 1 , M. Lisi 1 , G. Sileo 1 , R. Paciello 2 , N. Pergola 2,1 , V. Satriano 1 1 School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, Potenza, Italy 2 Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis (IMAA), C.N.R., Tito Scalo (PZ), Italy 3 International Space Science Institute, Bern, Switzerland Introduction. Pre-seismic anomalous space-time transients in Earth’s emitted TIR (Thermal Infrared) radiation have been reported since ‘80s by several authors mostly in Russia and China (Tramutoli et al. , 2013a). However, only in the past ten years data analysis quality and extension of validation data set reached a level sufficient to receive a wider consensus from the scientific community and particularly from the one of scientists more expert in satellite data analysis (e.g. Tramutoli et al. , 2005). Among this the Robust Satellite Techniques [RST: Tramutoli (1998, 2007)] have been successfully applied in different geographic areas, different geological setting, using different satellite sensors, showing the occurrence of anomalous TIR space-time patterns days to weeks before earthquakes occurrence. However, even in presence of physical models able to justify the observations (Melbourne et al. , 1997; Revil and Glover, 1997; Pulinets, 2009; Tramutoli et al. , 2012), up to now no one single measurable parameter, no one observational methodology has demonstrated to be sufficiently reliable and effective for the implementation of an operational earthquake prediction system (see for example Geller, 1997). At the same time, statistical analysis have been performed over periods longer than 5-10 years (from the national to global scale) which demonstrate the existence of a significant (from 50% up to 93% of the cases) correlation among time/location of appearance of anomalous transients in the measurements of selected parameter (TIR anomalies) and the occurrence of earthquakes of magnitude greater than 4.5. It should be noted that the statistical significance of an earthquake forecast based on only one of this methods is already order of magnitude higher than the one demonstrated by the method recently proposed for an Operational Earthquake Forecast (OEF) in Italy. However, it is from the real-time integration of all the available observational capabilities that we expect an actual improvement of our present knowledge of preparatory phases of earthquakes and a significant progress in seismic hazard assessment. The possible importance of satellite TIR monitoring over Italy was already demonstrated in the 1 st year of the project “S3 - Short term earthquake prediction and preparation”, the first Italian project on this topic jointly supported by the National Department of Civil Protection (DPC) and the National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). In that case (Tramutoli et al. , 2013b) anomalous space-time TIR transients measured by MSG-SEVIRI (Meteosat Second Generation - Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager) were found in significant correlation with earthquakes of magnitude greater than 4 occurred in Italy in the selected areas of Po Plain and Southern Apennine (Tab. 1). An average score of only 25% of false positive