GNGTS 2014 - Atti del 33° Convegno Nazionale

98 GNGTS 2014 S essione 2.1 Tramutoli, V. (1998). Robust AVHRR Techniques (RAT) for Environmental Monitoring: theory and applications . Proceedings of SPIE, vol. 3496 , pp. 101–113. Tramutoli, V. (2005). Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) for natural and environmental hazards monitoring and mitigation: ten year of successful applications , Proceendings of the 9th International Symposium on Physical Measurements and Signatures in Remote Sensing, IGSNRR, Beijing, China,XXXVI (7/W20), pp. 792–795. Tramutoli, V. (2007) Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) for Natural and Environmental Hazards Monitoring and Mitigation: Theory and Applications Proceeding of 2007 International Workshop on the Analysis of Multi- temporal Remote Sensing Images, pp. 1–6. Tramutoli, V.; Cuomo, V.; Filizzola, C.; Pergola, N.; Pietrapertosa, C. (2005). Assessing the potential of thermal infrared satellite surveys for monitoring seismically active areas: The case of Kocaeli (İzmit) earthquake, August 17, 1999. ������ ������� �� ������������ Remote Sensing of Environment, 96 , 409–426. Tramutoli, V.; Aliano, C.; Corrado, R.; Filizzola, C.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Martinelli, G.; Pergola, N. (2012). On the possible origin of Thermal Infrared Radiation (TIR) anomalies in earthquake-prone areas observed using Robust Satellite Techniques (RST). Chemical Geology 2012, 339 , 157-168 DOI: 10.1016/j.chemgeo.2012.10.042. Tramutoli,V.; Corrado, R.; Filizzola, C.;Genzano, N.; Lisi,M., Pergola, N. (2013a) TIRSatelliteTechniques for the Study of Earthquakes Preparation Phases: a Review . Report D6.1 of DPC-INGV-S3 Project “ Short Term Earthquake prediction and preparation” , 47 pages (available at https://sites.google.com/site/ingvdpc2012progettos3/ ) Tramutoli, V., Genzano, N., Lisi, M., Sileo, G., Paciello, R. and N. Pergola (2013b). Applying Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) to TIR anomalies monitoring in two earthquakes prone areas of Italy: results of a one year monitoring exercise performed in the framework of the INGV-DPC Project S3 . in 32° Convegno Nazionale. Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida (GNGTS). Earthquake predictions in Italy by probabilistic approaches: main limitations M. Viti 1 , N. Cenni 2 , D. Babbucci 1 , E. Mantovani 1 1 Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Università di Siena, Italy 2 Dipartimento di Scienze Biologiche, Geologiche e Ambientali, Università di Bologna, Italy Introduction. In recent decades, numerous attempts about prediction [or forecasting: e.g., Marzocchi and Zechar (2011)] of destructive earthquake have been proposed, concerning various zones of the world. The importance of this research is twofold: on the scientific side, a series of well-aimed forecasts corroborates the model adopted and, therefore, may represent an important step forward in the understanding of seismogenetic processes. On the practical side, a reliable forecasting procedure would provide a tool of great interest for the defense against earthquakes. Some of these proposals investigate the signals that would precede a large earthquake (e.g. Cicerone et al. , 2009). Such short-term forecasts should allow us to identify the future epicentral area with an advance from a few months to a few hours before the quake. However, the results so far obtained have been modest, so that some authors question the very existence of seismic precursors - or at least their unreliability (e.g., Bakun et al. , 2005 and references therein). To overcome these difficulties, it has been suggested that analyzing the seismic activity from the statistical point of view would be more appropriate (e.g., Vere-Jones, 2006). In particular, efforts have been made to elaborate forecasting procedures, based on the applications of probabilistic models, in the belief that the spatial and temporal distribution of past earthquakes can provide valuable information about the future seismic activity. Early predictions for the Italian region, based on time-predictable, slip-predictable, seismic gap and characteristic earthquake hypotheses, were mostly retrospective in nature (e.g., Mulargia and Gasperini, 1995; Mulargia and Geller, 2003; Valensise et al. , 2003). On the other hand,