GNGTS 2015 - Atti del 34° Convegno Nazionale

54 GNGTS 2015 S essione 1.1 is compatible with the surface rupture found by Sapkota et al. (2013) once the inversion errors of Tab. 2 are considered (mostly latitude and strike errors) and the strongly listric shape of MFT is taken into account. The north-dipping plane of the best-fitting solution in Tab. 2 (dip angle 18 ±11 ) is perfectly compatible with MFT. The rake angle of Tab. 2 (42 ±14 ) cannot be verified due to the lack of reference values. By the way, among the eight first motions shown in Fig. 2 by Singh and Gupta (1980) six are compatible with the mechanism of column three of Tab. 2; this confirms only that instrumental evidence is too scarce to constraint a reliable double-couple for verification purposes. 4. Fast KF parametric scenario of intensities for the M7.8 Gorkha 25 April, 2015 earthquake. We performed the exercise of forecasting the fast MMI intensity scenario of the Gorkha earthquake of 2015, that could have been calculated 24 hrs after the event using the KF Tab. 1 - Intensity-based KF inversion, M S 8.1 Shillong, 1897. Parameter Ranges explored Inversion results Latitude [º] N 25.20 – 25.80 25.61 ± 0.08 Longitude [º] E 90.00 – 92.00 91.42 ± 0.11 Strike [º] 0 - 359 289 ± 11 Dip [º] 0 - 90 36 ± 4 Rake [º] 0 - 179 87 ± 16 Depth [km] 20 - 45 40.9 ± 1.9 Vs [km/s] 3.50 – 3.95 3.50 ± 0.09 Mach + 0.50 – 0.95 0.50 ± 0.01 Mach - 0.50 – 0.95 0.59 ± 0.03 Seismic Moment 0.80 – 2.00 0.80 ± 0.09 [N m] 1028 L + % 52 ∑ r2 8.5 Tab. 2 - Intensity-based KF inversion, M S 8.2 Bihar-Nepal, 1934. Parameter Ranges explored Inversion results Latitude [º] N 26.80 – 27.30 27.00 ± 0.16 Longitude [º] E 86.90 – 87.30 87.14 ± 0.14 Strike [º] 0 - 359 275 ± 16 Dip [º] 0 - 90 18 ± 11 Rake [º] 0 - 179 42 ± 14 Depth [km] 30 - 40 34.4 ± 8.2 Vs [km/s] 3.60 – 3.95 3.76 ± 0.16 Mach + 0.50 – 0.95 0.63 ± 0.10 Mach - 0.50 – 0.95 0.50 ± 0.06 Seismic Moment 0.80 – 2.00 1.32 ± 0.42 [N m] 1028 L + % 99 ∑ r2 16