GNGTS 2017 - 36° Convegno Nazionale

GNGTS 2017 S essione 2.1 287 • the completeness level of intensity observations may be different in northern and southern Italy, possibly explaining the better agreement between model and observed rates in peninsular Italy. References Locati M., Camassi R., Rovida A., Ercolani E., Bernardini F., Castelli V., Caracciolo C.H., Tertulliani A., Rossi A., Azzaro R., D’Amico S., Conte S. and Rocchetti E.; 2016: DBMI15, the 2015 version of the Italian Macroseismic Database. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. doi: http://doi.org/10.6092/INGV.IT-DBMI15. Magrin A., Peresan A., Kronrod T., Vaccari F. and Panza G.F.; 2017: Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment and earthquake occurrence rate. Engineering Geology, accepted for publication. Molchan G., Kronrod T. and Panza G.F.; 1997: Multi-scale seismicity model for seismic risk, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 870(5), 1220–1229. Nekrasova A., Kossobokov V., Peresan A. and Magrin A.; 2014: The comparison of the NDSHA, PSHA seismic hazard maps and real seismicity for the Italian territory. Natural hazards, 70(1), 629–641. Panza G.F.; 2017: NDSHA: robust and reliable seismic hazard assessment, Proceedings, International Conference on Disaster Risk Mitigation, Dhaka, Bangladesh, September 23 - 24, 2017, arXiv:1709.02945 Panza G.F., Romanelli F. and Vaccari F.; 2001: Seismic wave propagation in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media: theory and applications to seismic zonation, Advances in geophysics, 43, 1–95. Panza G.F., La Mura C., Peresan A., Romanelli F. and Vaccari F.; 2012: Seismic hazard scenarios as preventive tools for a disaster resilient society. Advances in Geophysics, 53, 93–165. The new Italian seismic hazard model C. Meletti 1 , W. Marzocchi 1 , D. Albarello 2 , V. D’Amico 1 , L. Luzi 1 , F. Martinelli 1 , B. Pace 3 , M. Pignone 1 , A. Rovida 1 , F. Visini 1 and the MPS16 Working Group 1 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Centro di Pericolosità Sismica, Italy 2 Università degli Studi di Siena, Italy 3 Università degli Studi di Chieti-Pescara, Italy In2015, theSeismicHazardCentre (CPS) of the IstitutoNazionale diGeofisica eVulcanologia (INGV) was commissioned to engage and coordinate the national community with the aim of elaborating a new reference seismic hazard model, which is expected to be released in mid 2018. Since the beginning CPS and the Civil Protection department representatives agreed on fixing some key constraints that must be honoured in building a seismic hazard model for practical purposes. These points, which basically aim to guarantee a large participation and the scientific and non-scientific consensus, can be summarized as follows: i) use of international standards according to the state of the art in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA); ii) open and transparent procedures that guarantee completely reproducible outcomes; iii) use of formats that have to be approved by the decision makers; iv) the involvement of the whole Italian scientific community in proposing data, models and approaches; v) a full and coherent exploration and representation of the epistemic uncertainty in the final seismic hazard model; vi) the implementation of a robust testing phase, and of an elicitation session with national and international independent experts, in order to check the reliability of each component of the seismic hazard model. CPS have outlined a roadmap to describe the main features of this complex endeavour, including the different scientific tasks, milestones and timelines. The scientific tasks focus their work on i) improving the quality and the accuracy of the input data (e.g. historical seismic catalogue, seismotectonic zonation, etc.); ii) building new earthquake rate models based on these new input data; iii) selecting the most proper ground motion prediction equations; iv) testing the overall seismic hazard model as well as each component; v) combining the results of the statistical testing phase and the outcome of an expert’s elicitation session to assign a weight to each component of the final seismic hazard model. Worthy of note, the new seismic hazard model is based on an innovative coherent probabilistic framework, which allows a