GNGTS 2017 - 36° Convegno Nazionale

GNGTS 2017 S essione 2.1 291 PSHA for decisions that affect public safety should cease. Earthquake hazard mitigation should be recognized as inherently political, involving a tradeoff between uncertain costs and uncertain risks. Earthquake scientists, engineers, and risk managers can make important contributions to the hard problem of allocating limited resources wisely, but government officials and stakeholders must take responsibility for the risks of accidents due to natural events that exceed adopted safety criteria. As Klemeš (1989) concluded for floods: “… decisions made on the basis of wrong numbers presented as good estimates of flood probabilities will generally be worse than decisions made with an awareness of an impossibility to make a good estimate and with the aid of merely qualitative information on the general flooding potential.” References Cornell, C.A., 1968, Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58, pp. 1583-1606 Dalkey, N., Helmer, O, 1963. An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts, Manage. Sci., 9, pp. 458-467 Geller, R.J., 2011, Shake-up time for Japanese seismology, Nature, 472, pp. 407-409 Hanks, T.C., Abrahamson, N.A., Boore, D.M., Coppersmith, K.J., Knepprath, N.E., 2009. Implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines for Level 3 and 4 PSHAs – Experience Gained from Actual Applications. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2009-1093. <https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20091093 > Kagan, Y.Y., 2002, Seismic moment distribution revisited: I. Statistical results Geophys. J. Int., 148, pp. 520-541 Kagan, Y.Y., Jackson, D.D., 2013, Tohoku earthquake: a surprise? Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103, pp. 1181-119 Klemeš V., 1989. The improbable probabilities of extreme floods and droughts, in Hydrology of Disasters, O. Starosolszky, O.M. Medler (Eds.),  James and James, London, pp. 43-51 Liu, �� ������ ��� ����� �� ����� ���� ����� �� ��������� ����������� �� ����� ������ ��� ����������� �� ���� M, Stein, S., Wang, H, 2011, 2000 years of migrating earthquakes in North China: how earthquakes in mid- continents differ from those at plate boundaries, Lithosphere, 3.3 (2) p. 128, 10.1130/L129.1 Luen, B., 2010. Earthquake Prediction: Simple Methods for Complex Phenomena. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of California, Berkeley Mulargia, �� ������� ����� ������� ����� ���������� ������� ��� ������� ���� ���������� ������� ���������� ��� ��� F, Geller, R.J., ������� ����� ����������  (Eds.), 2003, Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, ������� ���������� ��� ��� Kluwer, Dordrecht, 347 pp. Musson, R.M.W., 2012, PSHA validated by quasi observational means, Seismol. Res. Lett., 83, pp. 130-134 Sieh, �� �������� ��� ����������� ��� ����� � ���� ������� ���������� �� ����������� �������� �� ��� ��� �������  K, Stuiver, M., Brillinger, D., 1989, A more precise chronology of earthquakes produced by the San Andreas Fault in Southern California , J. Geophys. Res., 94, pp. 603-623 Solomos, G., Pinto, A. Dimova, S., 2008. AReview of the Seismic Hazard Zonation in National Building Codes in the Context of EUROCODE 8. European Commission Joint Research Centre, Report EUR 23563 EN. Stark, P.B., 2013. Ontology of Earthquake Probability: Metaphor, presentation at SAMSI Symposium on Dynamics of Seismicity, Earthquake Clustering and Patterns, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA, October 9–11, 2013 Stark, P.B., 2017. Pay no attention to the model behind the curtain, in Significant Digits: Responsible use of Quantitative Information, ��������� ��� ��������� �������� �� ����� ��� ������ Saltelli, A., Guimar���ã �������� �� ����� ��� ������ es Pereira, Â. (Eds) (in press) Wang, Z., 2008, A technical note on seismic microzonation in the central United States, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 117, pp. 749-756 Development of a seismic source model for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Italy, considering seismicity and fault moment release M. Murru 1 , G. Falcone 1 , M. Taroni 1 , R. Console 1,2 1 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy 2 Center of Integrated Geomorphology for the Mediterranean Area, Potenza, Italy At the beginning of 2015, the Italian Civil Protection Department required to the INGV Seismic Hazard Center (Centro Pericolosità Sismica – CPS) of starting a large national project, involving the scientific community, with the aim of producing within 2 years a deeply renewed hazard model, relevant for seismic zoning and seismic code. The CPS designed a roadmap for