GNGTS 2017 - 36° Convegno Nazionale

302 GNGTS 2017 S essione 2.1 Gutenberg B. and Richter C. F.; 1954: Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena, 2nd ed. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, pages 17-19. Locati M., Camassi R., Rovida A., Ercolani E., Bernardini F., Castelli V., Caracciolo C.H., Tertulliani A., Rossi A., Azzaro R., D’Amico S., Conte S., Rocchetti E.; 2016: DBMI15, the 2015 version of the Italian Macroseismic Database. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. doi :http://doi.org/10.6092/INGV.IT-DBMI15. McGuire R. K. and Shedlock K.M.; 1981: Statistical uncertainties in seismic hazard evaluations in the United States. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 71, 1287-1308. Meletti C., Galadini F., Valensise G., Stucchi M., Basili R., Barba S., Vannucci G. and Boschi E.; 2008: A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory. Tectonophysics, 450, 85–108. Pagani M., Monelli D., Weatherill G., Danciu L., Crowley H., Silva V., Henshaw P., Butler L., Nastasi M., Panzeri L., Simionato M., Vigano D.; 2014: OpenQuake-engine: an open hazard (and risk) software for the global earthquake model. Seismol. Res. Lett., 85 (3), 692-702. Pondrelli S., Salimbeni S., Morelli A., Ekström G., Postpischl L., Vannucci G. and Boschi E.; 2011: European- Mediterranean Regional Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog: solutions for 2005-2008. Phys Earth Planet Int 185. doi: 10.1016/j.pepi.2011.01.007. Rebez A., Santulin M., Tamaro A., Slejko D., Sani F., Martelli L., Bonini M., Corti G., Poli M. E., Zanferrari A., Marchesini A., Busetti M., Dal Cin M., Spallarossa D., Barani S., Scafidi D., Barreca G., Monaco C.; 2016: Seismogenetic zonation as a branch of the logic-tree for the new Italian Seismic Hazard Map - MPS16: a preliminary outline. Atti del convegno GNGTS 2.1, 314-320. Rovida A., Locati M., Camassi R., Lolli B., Gasperini P.; 2016: CPTI15, the 2015 version of the Parametric Catalogue of Italian Earthquakes. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. doi :http://doi.org/10.6092/INGV.IT- CPTI15. Scafidi D., Barani S., De Ferrari R., Ferretti G., Pasta M., Pavan M., Spallarossa D. and Turino C.; 2015: Seismicity of northwestern Italy during the last thirty years. Journal of Seismology, 19, 201-218. Toro G. R., Abrahamson N. A. and Schneider J. F.; 1997: Model of strong motions from earthquakes in central and eastern North America: best estimates and uncertainties. Seism. Res. Lett., 68, 41-57. Weichert D. H.; 1980: Estimation of the earthquake recurrence parameters for unequal observation periods for different magnitudes. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 70, 1337-1346. On the use of faults and background seismicity in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) J. Selva 1 , S. Lorito 2 , A. Babeyko 3 , R. Basili 2 , A. Hoechner 3 , F.E. Maesano 2 , Antonio Scala 2 , M. Taroni 2 , R. Tonini 2 , M.M. Tiberti 2 , F. Romano 2 , P. Perfetti 1 , M. Volpe 2 1 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy 2 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy 3 GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany Most of the SPTHA studies and applications rely on several working assumptions: i) the mostly offshore tsunamigenic faults are sufficiently well known; ii) the subduction zone earthquakes dominate the hazard; and iii) their location and geometry is sufficiently well constrained. Hence, a probabilistic model is constructed as regards the magnitude-frequency distribution and sometimes the slip distribution of earthquakes occurring on assumed known faults. Then, tsunami scenarios are usually constructed for all earthquake locations, sizes, and slip distributions included in the probabilistic model, through deterministic numerical modelling of tsunami generation, propagation, and impact on realistic bathymetries. Here, we adopt a different approach (Selva et al. , 2016) that relaxes some of the above assumptions, considering that: i) non-subduction earthquakes may also contribute significantly to SPTHA, depending on the local tectonic context; ii) not all the offshore faults are known or sufficiently well constrained; and iii) the faulting mechanism of future earthquakes cannot be considered strictly predictable from the local tectonic setting.