GNGTS 2017 - 36° Convegno Nazionale

GNGTS 2017 S essione 2.1 307 moment rate has been computed from the long-term permanent strain-rate and from long-term slip-rates; 4) the tectonic moment rates have been compared and expressed as a fraction of the appropriate sub-catalogue of seismicity; 5) the expected earthquake rate of the given grid point has been obtained by multiplying this fraction for the rates obtained from the earthquakes reported in the relevant sub-catalogue; 6) the MFD of the expected rates has been obtained by scaling the computed rate using the beta and corner magnitude previously estimated for the relevant tectonic class. Etna model. For the volcanic area of Mt. Etna an ad hoc seismicity model has been developed. The reason is that the seismicity in volcanic area has specific features, which may be significantly different from the seismicity in tectonic regions, which includes also the use of different frequency-magnitude relationship. This ad hoc model avoids introducing significant biases in seismic hazard. Acknowledgments The financial support of the Centro di Pericolosità Sismica dell’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in developing these seismicity models for the MPS16-project is gratefully acknowledged. This paper summarises the products of a large team of earthquake geologists, seismologists, and engineering seismologists, reflecting the open and inclusive philosophy behind the approach to PSH modelling that has evolved in Italy in the last years. Numerous researchers deserve acknowledgement for their technical input to this study, for producing the seismicity models, and for contributing to the next PSH model for Italy: Santulin M., Rebez A., Spallarossa D., Barani S., Monaco C., Rotondi R., Varini E., Basili R., Burrato P., Fracassi U, Kastelic V., Tarabusi G., Tiberti M.M., Valensise G., Vannoli P., Azzaro R., Barberi G., D’Amico S., Palano M., Tuvè T., Peruzza L., Gee R., Carafa M.M.C., Bird P., Murru M., Falcone G., Console R., Akinci A., Moschetti M.P., Taroni M., D’Agostino, N., Lai C. and Zuccolo E. References Bird, P., & Liu, Z., 2007. Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics: California. Seismological Research Letters 78, 37-48. Bird, P., Kreemer, C., & Holt, W.E., 2010. A Long-term forecast of Shallow Seismicity Based on the Global Strain Rate Map. Seismological Research Letters 81, 184-194. Bird, P., & Kreemer, C., 2015. Revised Tectonic Forecast of Global Shallow Seismicity Based on Version 2.1 of the Global Strain Rate Map. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105, 152-166. Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 58 (5), 1583- 1606. Field, E. H., Jackson, D.D. and Dolan, J. F., 1999. A mutually consistent seismic-hazard source model for Southern California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 89 (3), 559-578. Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping Seismic Hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismological Research Letters 66 (4), 8–21. Jackson, D.D. & Kagan, Y.Y., 1999. Testable earthquake forecast for 1999. Seismological research letters 70 (4), 393-403. Kagan, Y.Y., 2002. Seismic moment distribution revisited: I. statistical results. Geophysical Journal International 148, 520-541. Meletti, C., Galadini, F., Valensise, G., Stucchi, M., Basili, R., Barba, S., Vannucci, G. & Boschi, E., 2008. � ������� A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory Tectonophysics 450, 85-108. Shen, Z.K., Wang, M., Zeng, Y., & Wang, F., 2015. Optimal Interpolation of Spatially Discretized Geodetic Data. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105, 2117-2127. Ward, S.N., 1998. On the consistency of earthquake moment release and space geodetic strain rates: The United States. Geophysical Journal International 134 (1), 172–186. Weichert, D.H., 1980. Estimation of the earthquake recurrence parameters for unequal observation periods for different magnitudes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 70 (4), 1337-1346. Woo, G., 1996. Kernel Estimation Methods for Seismic Hazard Area Source Modeling. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86 (2), 353-362.