GNGTS 2018 - 37° Convegno Nazionale

GNGTS 2018 S essione 2.1 345 FORECASTING PROBABILITY AND FALSE ALARMS FOR STRONG EARTHQUAKES BY A CAUSAL MODEL OF HIGH ENERGY ELECTRON DISTURBANCES INTO THE IONOSPHERE C. Fidani Central Italy Electromagnetic Network, Fermo, Italy “A. Bina” Seismic Observatory, Perugia, Italy Particle data from the NOAA-15 satellite have been analysed using a set of invariant coordinates. Specifically, electron counting rates over 16.5 years from July 1998 to December 2014 have been compared with a total of 2,023 main shocks which magnitudes was greater than or equal to 6, occurring worldwide during the same period. When considering 30 - 100 keV precipitating electron bursts, detected by the vertical NOAA-15 telescope and earthquake epicentre projections at altitudes greater than 1,400 km, of EQs occurred in Indonesia and the Phillippines, a significant correlation was observed (Fidani, 2015). The statistical correlation occurred with 2 - 3 hours of positive time differences between the times of large seismic events and the times of electron bursts, see Figure 1. Correlation calculus in past publications were obtained making specific selections in electron parameters. These parameters were used to test for a causal association among earthquake to electron burst interaction, electron burst detection, earthquake occurrence and electron burst absorption. Then, it was shown that a cross-correlation could increases the forecasting probability of a strong seismic event occurrence in Indonesia and the Philippines regions given an electron burst detection by NOAA (Fidani, 2018). However, the significant correlations that were reported in past publications were calculated considering earthquake and electron burst events as unitary events. Being so, these correlations were only positively defined and need to be redefined to consider both positive and negative values. It is made here by taking into account past calculated correlations and the total number of considered hours, the total number of considered earthquakes and the total number of considered electron bursts. Based on this, the conditional forecasting probability of a strong earthquake event given an electron burst event is evaluated. The number of false alarms and the technology of a real-life experiment on one year of average earthquake and electron burst numbers can be estimated to consider the experimental reliability. Magnetic pulses detected during the Norcia seismic swarm (Orsini and Fidani, 2017 and 2018), culminated with a main-shock of Mw = 6.6 occurred on October 30, 2016, gave new Fig. 1. The statistical correlation between strong earthquakes occurred in Indonesia and the Philippines and electron burst recorded by NOAA-15 satellite is reproduced here from past publications for earthquake epicentre projection altitudes of 1800 km (Fidani, 2015).