GNGTS 2018 - 37° Convegno Nazionale

GNGTS 2018 S essione 2.3 527 The full BT structures defined for the scenarios analysed in this case study can be assessed combining the path probabilities and the expected consequences. The results of the MHR analysis for this case study are summarised in the risk matrix shown in Fig.2. In this way, different risk pathway scenarios can be compared quantitatively; the bars in Fig. 2 indicate the uncertainties in the results and are defined considering the 5th and the 95th percentiles of the solutions. Considering the solutions obtained for this synthetic example, larger uncertainties are obtained in the risk estimates for the scenario involving transport accidents respect to the uncertainties in the risk estimates associated with storage failures. 3 Software tool development: MERGER. The functionalities of the methodology proposed by Garcia-Aristizabal et al (2018) for quantitative MHR assessments using a BT structure have been implemented in an open source computational tool denominated Simulator for Multi-hazard risk assessment in ExploRation/exploitation of GEoResources (MERGER). Furthermore, in the framework of the European project EPOS-IP (European Plate Observing System, Implementation Phase), a web-based tool that integrates all the functionalities of MERGER is at the moment under implementation as an online application running in the environment of the IS-EPOS platform (https://tcs.ah-epos.eu/ ). The IS-EPOS Platform, which constitutes the Anthropogenic Hazards thematic core service (TCS-AH) of EPOS-IP, is a web portal created to facilitate analyses of anthropogenic seismicity, related hazards, and for assessing potential environmental impacts of geo-resources Fig. 2 - Risk matrix summarising the MHR analysis for the two risk pathway scenarios considered in the worked example. Each point in this plot represents the median of the distribution of probability and consequences obtained for each ET path. Error bars are defined considering the 5th and the 95th percentiles of the solutions. (figure from Garcia-Aristizabal et al. , 2018).