GNGTS 2019 - Atti del 38° Convegno Nazionale

364 GNGTS 2019 S essione 2.2 The percentage expected annual losses, EAL %, is calculated by integration of the EAL curve obtained by connecting the points ( P f,i , % RC i ) as: (4) where the difference of the probability failures are the probabilities of being in each damage state and the multiplier coefficients are the percentage of the relevant repair costs (% RC i ). The expected annual losses, EAL , for each municipality is calculated as: (5) where CV is the cadastral value of industrial buildings in a municipality. This approach only considers direct losses neglecting indirect losses. Identification of the areas at large risk. The identification of the areas with large risk can be performed by using a scalar index to define and rank the risk for each municipality of the Italian territory. In this study, the areal density EAL for each municipality of the Italian territory is chosen as index of risk. In particular, the boundaries of the four-level of risk were established in a reference manner ( i.e. , only to provide a simplified classification) as the quantiles of CDF of EAL of 70%, 90% and 95% correspond to EAL equal to 0.021, 0.101 and 0.177 k€/km 2 , respectively. Fig. 1 reports the Italian municipalities classified as negligible, low, mid and high seismic risk for the industrial buildings. Fig. 1: EAL in terms of thousands of Euro (k€) per square kilometer for each municipality of the Italian territory (left). Municipalities are characterized by a seismic risk that can be (right): negligible (quantile of cumulative probabilities 0%), low (70%), mid (90%) and high (95%). It can be seen that the areas of the Italian territory characterized by the largest risk are located in: Emilia-Romagna; the Northeast area (Friuli, Veneto and Lombardy); some Central- South cities (Florence, Pisa, Naples, Rome, Cosenza); and, in Sicily, Catania and Palermo. It is interesting to observe that also Turin, in the North-West, is characterized by non-negligible risk; this is due to a large number of industrial buildings in that area, thus balancing the local low seismic hazard. The area hit by the Emilia-Romagna earthquakes in 2012 is included in the high seismic risk areas indicating the predictability of large damage occurred on industrial buildings during the seismic event. The prediction presented in this study can be used to define an appropriate strategy of