GNGTS 2021 - Atti del 39° Convegno Nazionale

235 GNGTS 2021 S essione 2.1 3. average values with associated uncertainty are assigned to strike, dip and rake angles based on the seismogenic zone where the hypocenter falls into. The combination of the information retrieved from the previous steps allows for the construction of an ensemble of scenarios, each of which can be assigned a probability. Tsunami numerical simulations are run for each scenario to quantify the classical observables, such as water elevation time series in selected offshore/coastal tide-gauges, flow depth, run-up, inundation distance. These are presented in terms of probability distributions with associated uncertainties. We illustrate the above strategy in its application to the 16 September 2015 Illapel (Chile) tsunamigenic earthquake (Mw = 8.2). By making use of the shallow-water code UBO-TSUFD to run the tsunami simulations, we determine the probabilistic distributions of the main observables and show how they match the experimental data. Finally, we briefly discuss the applicability of the methodology to geographical domains such as the Mediterranean, where the seismogenic/tsunamigenic faults are significantly segmented and the tectonic regimes can vary over very short spatial scales, and moreover, where the availability of FFMs is rather limited. Corresponding author: martina.zanetti8@unibo.it; alberto.armigliato@unibo.it