GNGTS 2023 - Atti del 41° Convegno Nazionale

Session 2.1 GNGTS 2023 including the map published in Zuccolo et al. (2011). So far the maps by Panza et al. (2012) have not been falsified by the many events occurred since their publication. Conclusions Forecasting earthquakes and related ground shaking is not an easy task and it implies a careful application of statistics to data sets of limited size and different accuracy. Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) information, just as Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), must be tested and confirmed by evidence, but not necessarily probabilistic (Kossobokov et al., 2015). It is indisputable that only by careful analysis of failures and successes one can eventually evaluate reliability and effectiveness of the provided anticipatory information, by applying assessment tools adequate to SHA estimates. Moreover, such testing must be done in advance claiming hazardous areas. Cross-checking of results from different models, as well as with observations from past and recent earthquakes is recognized as a major verification procedure (e.g. Nekrasova et al., 2015). Comparing seismic hazard maps developed over time is important to understand local divergences that show how the models are developing. The temporal sequence of maps is important: it is essential to learn from previous errors. References Gallipoli, M. R., Chiauzzi, L., Stabile, T. A., Mucciarelli, M., Masi, A., Lizza, C., and Vignola, L. (2014), "The role of site effects in the comparison between code provisions and the near field strong motion of the Emilia 2012 earthquakes", Bull. Earthquake Eng., 12(5), 2211–2230. Gorshkov, A., Panza, G.F., Soloviev, A.A., Aoudia, A. (2002). “Morphostructural zonation and preliminary recognition of seismogenic nodes around the Adria margin in peninsular Italy and Sicily”. JSEE. J. of Seismology and Earthquake Engeneering 4 (1): 1-24. Kossobokov V., Peresan A., Panza G.F. (2015). “On operational earthquake forecast and prediction problems”. Seismological Research Letters 86 (2): 287-290; https://doi.org/10.1785/0220140202 Magrin A., Peresan A., Kronrod T., Vaccari F., Panza G.F. (2017). "Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment and earthquake occurrence rate". Engineering Geology 229: 95-109. Nekrasova A., Peresan A., Kossobokov V.G., Panza G.F. (2015). “A new probabilistic shift away from seismic hazard reality in Italy?” In: M. Kouteva-Guentcheva and B. Aneva (Eds)."Nonlinear Mathematical Physics and Natural Hazards". Springer Proceedings Phys. 163: 83-104. Nekrasova, A, Kossobokov, V, Peresan, A, Magrin, A (2014) “The comparison of the NDSHA, PSHA seismic hazard maps and real seismicity for the Italian territory”. Natural Hazards 70 (1): 629-641. doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0832-6 Panza, G.F., Romanelli, F. e Vaccari, F., (2001), Seismic wave propagation in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media: theory and applications to seismic zonation. Advances in Geophysics, 43, 1-95.