GNGTS 2024 - Atti del 42° Convegno Nazionale

Session 2.1 GNGTS 2024 include the assumption of a recurrence model, usually the same for all geographic areas and for all magnitude intervals; the subsequent derivation of a magnitude-frequency distribution, that sometimes contrasts with the evidence supplied by the earthquake record itself; the idea that all large active faults are fully coupled, and hence 100% seismogenic. These conditions should be sorted out beforehand by fostering the interaction of all scientists involved, so as to avoid turning the richness and uniqueness of the Italian historical and geological records into a limitation, rather than an advantage. Historical and geological-tectonic data are inherently independent epistemically, and could hence support any seismicity model despite their respective incompleteness: but so far this circumstance has not been exploited to the fullest possible extent. I will briefly present examples of all these conditions, and illustrate how to get the best possible information from the multiplicity of data we already have, and where to go to find new supporting information. Corresponding author: gianluca.valensise@ingv.it