GNGTS 2024 - Atti del 42° Convegno Nazionale

Session 2.1 GNGTS 2024 purely frequentist interpretations of probability is made evident by examining the probabilistic meaning of the mean hazard in these contexts. Here we describe a unified approach (Marzocchi and Jordan, 2017) that may overcome this problem, allowing formal tests of NSHM. References Field, E. H., K. R. Milner, A. E. Hatem, P. M. Powers, F. F. Pollitz, A. L. Llenos, Y. Zeng, K. M. Johnson, B. E. Shaw, D. McPhillips, et al. (2023). The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time-Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., doi: 10.1785/0120230120 Gerstenberger, M. C., S. Bora, B. A. Bradley, C. DiCaprio, A. Kaiser, E. F. Manea, A. Nicol, C. Rollins, M. W. Stirling, K. KS. Thingbaijam, et al. (2023). The 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model: Process, Overview, and Results, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., doi: 10.1785/0120230182 Marzocchi, W., T.H. Jordan (2017). A unified probabilistic framework for seismic hazard analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 107(6), 2738-2744. Meletti, C., W. Marzocchi, V. D'Amico, G. Lanzano, L. Luzi, F. Martinelli, B. Pace, A. Rovida, M. Taroni, F. Visini (2021). The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19). Ann. Geophys., 64 (1), SE112 Corresponding author: warner.marzocchi@unina.it