GNGTS 2024 - Atti del 42° Convegno Nazionale

GNGTS 2024 Session 2.1 The general session Outlining the possible scenarios induced by the occurrence of earthquakes and tsunamis in the next future is an essential task of the seismological research. The close connection of these studies with the risk mitigation regulations has stimulated research in this direction but has also conditioned its development. Many studies have remained confined to restricted academic fields and this has progressively dried up part of the scientific debate, even at an international level. We want to stimulate a broader discussion on the topics, also because new and controversial strategies of analysis are appearing in the limelight. The session aims to reopen the debate on these issues of central importance for the research on hazards, also starting from a terminological redefinition of the problem, overcoming the apparent “sclerosis” of the discussion. The final aim is to outline a research path towards new approaches for seismic and tsunami hazards assessments over the next decade, also including a multi-hazard perspective. In terms of earthquake hazard the following topics are encouraged: ● Role and uncertainties of short-term seismic hazard models (days/months), both on statistical and deterministic basis, and how to give them a probabilistic form for their integration with medium-term (years) and long-term (tens of years) estimates. ● Seismic hazard estimates related to rare events and possible validation models of these estimates. ● Role of macroseismic studies and impact of their uncertainties in long-term seismic hazard definition. ● Methods of integrating geological and geophysical, surface and subsoil data, for parametric definition of the sources and their uncertainties, within a probabilistic formulation of hazard and event scenarios. ● Development of physics-based models of seismic sources and their interaction. ● Critical analysis of propagation models to support near-field and long-range ground motion estimates. ● Fault displacement hazard analysis, regarding in particular strategic infrastructures, and its possible integration into seismic hazard models. ● Systematic integration of local seismic hazard assessments into the regional scale ones. In terms of tsunami hazard the following topics are encouraged: ● Tsunami hazard models for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, also in comparison with international experiences, and the possible integration with a probabilistic approach of other types of data.