GNGTS 2024 - Atti del 42° Convegno Nazionale

Session 2.1 GNGTS 2024 Fig.2 Thematic map of the results obtained through a prototype non-Poissonian approach in which the probability of exceeding 10% is not in 50 years but in the next 50 years. This model was kindly given by the group (based in University of Basilicata, OGS, INGV-OV, and University of Trieste) that is developing it, and it is based on an extension of Harabaglia (2020) approach. It is based on earthquake data (HORUS) of Lolli et al., (2020) with magnitude M>3.95 in the time interval 1960-2022, and it takes into account the historical locations of the CPTI15 catalog (Rovida et al., 2022) in the time interval 1000-1959. It must be no means be intended as an actual proposal of earthquake hazard in the next 50 years, since the model must still be tuned, but only as an example of what the MSCA can do.