GNGTS 2024 - Atti del 42° Convegno Nazionale

Session 2.2 GNGTS 2024 Towards a mulH-risk determinisHc scenario in the Mt. Etna area V. Pessina 1 , F. Meroni 1 , E. Varini 2 , M. Longoni 1 , R. Rotondi 2 , S. D’Amico 3 , A. Cappello 3 e Panacea Group * 1 IsCtuto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – INGV, Milan, Italy 2 CNR IsCtuto di MatemaCca Applicata e Tecnologie InformaCche “Enrico Magenes”, Milan, Italy 3 IsCtuto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – INGV, Catania, Italy * A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract 1. MulH-risk analysis in the Panacea project Etna (Sicily, Italy) is an acCve volcano characterized by effusive and explosive erupCons, open accompanied by intense seismic acCvity. Its densely urbanized territory on the eastern flanks can suffer severe impacts due to lava flows, earthquakes, and tephra, while pyroclasCc flows only affect the summit area of the volcano. As part of the Panacea project (ProbabilisCc AssessmeNt of volCano-related mulC-hazard and mulC-risk at Mount EtnA), seismic and volcanic hazard scenarios were generated; consequently risk scenarios for built-up places, lifelines and communicaCon systems were assessed at very different scales, from local to sub-regional. In general, in case of a mulC-risk project, it is necessary to idenCfy the elements exposed to the volcano’s effects, assess their vulnerability to each different hazard and proceed to complex risk analyses (Meroni et al., 2022, Pessina et al., 2022). Mt. Etna's hazard studies provided interesCng insights (Del Negro et al., 2019) but it is the first Cme that a mulC-risk analysis has been carried out in the area. For this reason, in this study the analyses have been limited to the esCmaCon of direct losses (in terms of structural damage, vicCms, and loss of funcConality) and more complex risk analyses, such as mulC-risk and cascade assessments, have not yet been taken into consideraCon. 2. The hazard scenarios During the three years of the project, determinisCc damage scenarios were created for the calibraCon and development of damage esCmaCon methods. In this short note, we present