Topic 2

Session 2.1
Earthquake and tsunami hazard: different return periods, different conceptual schemes and models in a continuum spectrum of time

Convenors of the session:
Daniela Di Bucci – daniela.dibucci@protezionecivile.it
Dario Albarello – dario.albarello@unisi.it
Bruno Pace – bruno.pace@unich.it

Outlining the possible scenarios induced by the future occurrence of earthquakes and tsunamis and evaluating their respective likelihood is an essential task of the seismological research. No general-purpose approach exists for assessing seismic hazard relative to exposure times ranging from days or weeks to thousands of years, and using a single paradigm or standard may result misleading. At each time scale, different possible data and models relative to ongoing seismogenic and tsunamigenic processes can be considered (including physically based modelling and statistical procedures), each characterized a different constraining power and reliability. At the same time, any form of harmonization among these models and respective outcomes is required to avoid contradictory results where the considered time scales partially overlap.

We want to stimulate a broader discussion on this topic, by comparing the possible strategies and models so far proposed relative to seismic and tsunami hazard assessment at the different time scales, by keeping in mind that adopting a common probabilistic form of outcomes is mandatory to warrant a practical application in seismic risk assessment. Beyond this general perspective, specific contributions and critical discussion about researches and results obtained, related to different time-scales, are highly welcome. The use of macroseismic information to inform medium-term hazard models, updating and testing relevant outcomes and bridging them toward risk evaluations, will also be of primary interest: specific procedures and tools are required on purpose, by accounting for the specific nature of this kind of data.

As for the earthquake hazard, the following topics are encouraged:

• Role and uncertainties of short-term seismic hazard models (days/months), both on statistic and deterministic basis, and how to give these models a probabilistic form for their integration with short-term (days-weeks), medium-term (years and tens of years) and long-term (hundred to thousands of years) estimates.
• Seismic hazard estimates related to rare events and possible testing models of these estimates.
• Role of macroseismic studies and impact of their uncertainties in long-term seismic hazard definition.
• Methods to integrate geological and geophysical, surface and subsurface data, for parametric definition of the sources and their uncertainties, within a probabilistic formulation of hazard and event scenarios.
• Development of physics-based models of seismic sources and their integration into seismic hazard models.
• Critical analysis of propagation models to support near-field and long-range ground motion estimates, including expected displacements and co-seismic ground deformation.
• Fault displacement hazard analysis, regarding in particular strategic infrastructures, and its possible integration into seismic hazard models.
• Systematic integration of local seismic hazard assessments into the regional scale ones.

As for the tsunami hazard, the following topics are encouraged:

• Tsunami hazard models for tsunamis generated by crustal and subduction earthquakes, also in comparison with international experiences, and their possible integration with other types of data, following a probabilistic approach.
• Development of event and impact scenarios and their constituent elements.
• Advances in knowledge and hazard modelling for tsunamis not generated by earthquakes.

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Session 2.2
Science and technology to support earthquake prevention and preparedness

Convenors of the session:
Mauro Dolce (UniNA) – mauro.dolce@unina.it
Sara Sgobba (INGV) – sara.sgobba@ingv.it
Maria Polese (UniNA) – mapolese@unina.it 
Stefano Grimaz (UniUD) – stefano.grimaz@uniud.it

Contributions recommended for this session:

• Monitoring networks for seismic hazard knowledge and rapid response
• Shaking scenarios at different territorial scales for risk and damage assessment: methodological approaches, modelling strategies, uncertainty management and input data
• Methodologies, data and tools for the assessment of seismic risk and its engineering components (vulnerability and exposure) across various territorial scales
• Methodologies and examples of multi-risk analysis associated to seismic risk (e.g. earthquakes and tsunamis, earthquakes and landslides, etc.)
• Civil protection planning and urban planning tools for seismic risk mitigation
• Techniques and examples of seismic strengthening or retrofit interventions of rapid execution and having low impact on the service continuity of the building, also integrated with energy efficiency interventions and considering circular economy principles
• Tools for the safety assessment of individual buildings, including on-site and remote monitoring and related analysis methodologies
• Contributions for the improvement of seismic standards for different structural types (buildings, bridges, warehouses, large structures, etc.) and materials (masonry, reinforced concrete, steel, wood, etc.) for the design of new buildings or interventions on existing ones,
• Evaluation of seismic input for design: emerging trends in codes and best practices for structures and infrastructures

Seismic risk mitigation is a rapidly evolving field, as scientific, engineering and technological developments are providing new elements for the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery of both system and population exposed to  earthquake effects. Moreover, the need to combine seismic risk reduction with the mitigation strategies of other risks, along with the requirement to consider present and future climate change issues, foster the adoption of a more  comprehensive approach. In this perspective,  risk scenarios also encompass compound and induced events (e.g. tsunamis, landslides, etc.), and  prevention actions for constructions must account for  energy-efficiency requirements.

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Session 2.3

Social Dimensions of Risks Associated with Natural Hazards

Convenors of the session:

Valentina Rizzoli (CORIS, Sapienza University of Rome) – valentina.rizzoli@uniroma1.it
Alessandro Meneghini (University of Udine) – alessandro.meneghini@uniud.it

Understanding risks linked to natural hazards requires multidisciplinary and multi-actor efforts, and attention to the social, cultural, institutional, and communicative processes that shape how risks emerge, are interpreted, governed, and acted upon. Research in the social sciences has shown how perceptions, meanings, practices, inequalities, and power relations influence exposure, vulnerability, preparedness, and collective responses throughout all phases of the disaster cycle (e.g., prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery).

This session welcomes contributions from researchers and practitioners examining the social dimensions of risks associated with natural hazards from interdisciplinary and multi-hazard perspectives. Submissions may address how individuals, communities, institutions, and technologies interact in producing, mediating, or transforming risk, resilience, and crisis management.

Interventions can address – but are not limited to – the following areas and topics:

• Risk perception and behavioural responses
• Risk and crisis communication
• Media and social media in the construction and circulation of risk
• Information and communication technologies for risk management (e.g., citizen sensors, digital platforms)
• Social processes shaping exposure, vulnerability, preparedness, and resilience
• Governance, institutional practices, and decision-making under uncertainty
• Community engagement, participation, and co-production of knowledge
• Inequalities, vulnerable groups, and differentiated impacts
• Ethics, trust, and legitimacy in risk management
• Risk education
• Historical, documentary, and archival approaches to natural hazards (e.g., memory, records, narratives)